By Eddie McArthur
The 2026 monsoon dropped about 14 inches of rain on the Sonoita area. Grasses are belly high on a horse. So are weeds. Underbrush in the National Forest is thriving.
Does that mean we are now out of long-term drought conditions? Not even close!
According to a 2022 collaborative study by researchers from UCLA, NASA and the Columbia Climate School, Southern Arizona has been in a “megadrought” that began in 2000, and is the largest and longest drought in the Southwest in 1,200 years. The period from 2000 through 2021 was the driest in the southwest parts of the country in 800 years. Parts of our county are currently considered just “abnormally dry,” but the overall megadrought continues.
We are looking at conditions that could develop into a very dangerous fire season for this area. Possible winter rains from the El Niño may mitigate that to a degree. Without winter moisture, conditions will continue to deteriorate.
Sonoita Elgin Fire District provides fire protection to a 325 square mile area. In partnership with Patagonia Volunteer Fire and Rescue, the two are responsible for nearly 60 percent of Santa Cruz County. Operating in a large area with limited budget, equipment and personnel, these two agencies could quickly become stretched if more than one wildfire developed at the same time. While neighboring agencies will assist whenever possible, they will be facing many of the same conditions.
“This summer’s rainfall was a welcome improvement over recent years, (but) Arizona’s persistent drought coupled with increasingly unpredictable weather patterns means that we can experience intense fire conditions throughout the year,” said Sonoita-Elgin fire chief Marc Meredith.
Along with all the beautiful green grass brought to us by the monsoon are numerous dead trees. In our more forested areas such as the National Forest and many of our canyons, these dead trees stand among abundant “fuel load.” Fuel load is defined as the total quantity of combustible material in a specific area to feed and sustain a fire.
The Arizona Department of Fire & Forest Management identifies Santa Cruz County as one of the two highest risk communities for wildfire in the state. We don’t have a single type of “fuel load” here. Dense grasses, once dry, are very combustible and produce a fast-moving fire. Brush can carry fire rapidly, especially in hot and windy conditions. Oak and woodland fuels are slower burning but can produce substantial heat and throw off sparks causing spread of flames.
Also important for our area is the increase in average temperature. Increased temperatures result in more water evaporating from the soil. Plants lose water through a process called evapotranspiration. Streams and stock ponds lose water faster. Vegetation can become stressed even in times of “normal” rainfall. And recharging of our aquifers is reduced. A big monsoon may replenish surface water while doing little to nothing for groundwater recharge. The decades of accumulated water deficits remain. This can lead to aridification and long-term or even permanent changes to our climate.
Desertification often follows aridification. Aridification is a climatological change in which a region becomes permanently drier over time. Desertification is the ecological result when once fertile land becomes barren, vegetation dies, topsoil erodes, and the soil loses the ability to hold water. Unprotected dry soil blows away in wind and is washed away by flooding.
Some definitions:
- Drought is a period when conditions are unusually dry as compared with historical climate.
- Megadrought is an exceptionally long and severe drought, usually measured in decades.
- Aridification is a fundamental shift toward a drier baseline.
- Desertification is a gradual degradation of land into arid desert due to a combination of natural processes and human activity.
The University of Arizona maintains “Drought View” (droughtview.arizona.edu) with not just a drought monitor, but also noting changes relative to 5- and 10-year averages. The Arizona Department of Water Resources notes persistent warming, with July 2022 through June 2026 as our second hottest period on record. The UA Cooperative Extension shows Sonoita’s August temperatures were 3 to 5 degrees above normal.
This is a time to be especially cautious. Maintain “fire wise” conditions around property; be careful of sparks from dragging chains or power equipment; know how you will evacuate yourself and your pets if necessary.
The last year for a major wildfire here was 2017. We need to all work together not to allow this year to become another.
