In February 2022, SpaceX launched 49 satellites from Cape Canaveral two days after a solar magnetic storm slammed into earth. Forty of the satellites failed to reach full orbit and disintegrated during reentry despite ground controller attempts to save them. The atmosphere was too thick, and the satellites could not reach their higher, more stable orbit position, wrote Marcia Dunn of the Associated Press.
A solar storm takes three to five days to reach Earth after leaving the sun, providing a window for advanced warnings. SpaceX did not indicate whether it was aware of the solar storm which occurred five days prior to lift off. SpaceX has not released the cost caused by loss of satellites. Many scientists estimate it was in the tens of millions of dollars.
Solar storms are caused by fluctuations within the sun that blast charged particles into space. When these solar storms hit Earth, it disturbs the Earth’s magnetosphere, setting off a geomagnetic storm. Earth’s atmosphere absorbs the energy, heats up and expands upward. This expansion significantly increases the density of the atmosphere and causes drag, which can be a major problem for satellites, wrote Dr. Piyush Mehta of University of West Virginia.
Drag is just one hazard that space weather poses to space-based assets, said Mehta. In strong solar storms, electrons will penetrate the shielding on a spacecraft and can damage electronics, causing functional errors. If the error occurs in something critical, the entire satellite can fail. Mehta said solar storms can also disrupt the ability of satellites to communicate with Earth using radio waves, like GPS. Critical industries like aviation, maritime, robotics, transportation, farming, military, and self-driving vehicles rely on accuracy from GPS. An error of even just several yards is not acceptable.
During solar storms, satellites can suddenly drop to lower altitudes. The lower the orbit, the higher the difficulty for the spacecraft to recover when a solar storm hits. Anja Stromme, the
European Space Agency mission manager, wrote that in the last five or six years, satellites have been sinking about 1.5 miles a year, but since this past December, they are virtually diving at a sink rate of 12 miles a year. Some satellites have propulsion capability and can use it to regain altitude, but many will continue to sink. With the increased solar storm activity even those with capability are likely to run out of fuel sooner than expected.
The frequency of solar storms follows an 11-year cycle, and the risk of intense geomagnetic storms is elevated during the peak or midpoint of the solar cycle. The current cycle will peak in 2024-2025. During the sleepy part of this solar cycle, thousands of satellites were launched, and these new operators are about to face their first solar maximum. “The solar activity is a lot higher than the official forecast suggested,” wrote Hugh Lewis, a professor at the University of Southampton, who studies the behavior of satellites in low Earth orbit. “In fact, the current activity is already quite close to the peak level that was forecasted for this solar cycle, and we are still two to three years away from the solar maximum.”
It is easier and cheaper to deploy smaller satellites and, coupled with the demand for technology, the sky is getting crowded. Dewsoft, a developer of measurement and technology systems, reported that, as of January 2022, there were 4,550 satellites in orbit, with SpaceX owning 36% of them and planning to launch more than 1,000 new satellites into orbit every year. Satellites support television, telephones, radio, internet, military applications, space observation, and navigation and global positioning.
Satellites are not the only risk to internet failure – damage to long distance land and submarine cables that constitute the backbone of the internet may also fail. Underwater cables travel long distances across the world and connect countries and large regions. They are at elevated risk to fail because seawater has high conductivity.
Dr. Sangeetha Abdu Jyothi at the University of California, Irvine presented a research paper in September 2021 entitled “Solar Superstorms: Planning for an Internet Apocalypse.” Jyothi reported that one of the greatest dangers facing the internet with potential for global impact is a powerful solar superstorm. Power companies are already taking measures to protect the grid; however, the networking community has largely overlooked the risk. Jyothi stated that we have a limited understanding of whether the current infrastructure is resilient against a powerful solar storm. Geomagnetic induced currents will not impact the fiber itself but will impact the repeaters that boost optical signals. Even a single repeater failure can leave all parallel fibers in the cable unusable due to weak signal strength or disruption of power. Jyothi projects that connectivity between the Northeastern U.S. and Canada to Europe could fail completely.
Damage to satellites and power grids can be very expensive and disruptive. Solar storms are more damaging now than in the past due to greater dependence on electrical, satellite and global positioning systems. If your GPS fails, your internet goes down, or your phone stops working, you may look to the sun as the reason.
Editor’s note: Look for “Space Weather – Part 3” in an upcoming issue of the PRT for information on forecasting solar storms and preparing for solar events. Also, see “Space Weather Threats” in the August/September 2022 PRT for more information on solar storms.