Although there is no doubt that the earth is gradually warming with humans playing a key part, our temperatures of late are certainly no indication of this calamitous trend. Indeed, this past November and December have both proven to be rather frigid. Typically our coldest month on average is January. Here in the greater Patagonia area, temperatures during a “normal” January day may range from about freezing to the lower 60s. Trends are just that, however, and anyone who has spent significant time in the Sky Islands can attest to the fact that wild winter swings in the thermometer are not unusual. This winter may in fact turn out to be a rather wild one.
Given the continued forecast of a strong el Nino in the Pacific Ocean, the prediction for January weather is both wetter and cooler than normal. All of a sudden we get a bit of a taste of what its like to winter in a wetter and more northerly clime. This kind of weather makes me sympathize with Seattleites and pout as if I’m in Portland. Walls of grim clouds can sweep in from the Pacific as if a dusky cloak is being drawn over us. Unrelenting winds pick up and soon the deluge begins. It may not stop for days on end, rendering blue skies a thing of memory and transforming even normally stoic southern Arizonans into wintery whiners.
Of course the same folks will no doubt later marvel at the pageant of native wildflowers strewn across our lower habitats. Can’t have one without the other? We’ve had enough November and December rain that any decent January precipitation should proffer us a respectable array of blooms. We’re due. The last one I recall was in 2009. The seeds of spring annuals such as evening primrose, Mexican poppy, various mustards, and the bulbs of spring perennials like Papago lilly are all entombed in the soil, awaiting the salvation of a wet winter.
Ample rain and perhaps a bit of snow at mid-to-high elevations will also benefit our native trees. A broad range of species rely primarily upon winter moisture to sustain them. The drought we are hopefully emerging from, mainly pirated our winter rains and hence took a toll on our arborescent species of plants. If el Nino delivers as expected, then keep an eye on the growth, flowering, and fruiting of our velvet mesquites, catclaw acacias, oaks, and others, as spring brings warmer temperatures.
Nor will as much of that surfeit of growth wind up in the stomachs of voracious grasshoppers. Many species, including those that make the most inroads into plants, seem to be knocked back by a rainy year. For example, differential grasshoppers were legion here during the drought, but have been more or less under the radar for the last few years. It’s quite likely that the parasites and/or diseases that keep their populations in check tend to thrive under moist conditions. Conversely, desert encrusting and other species of termites will have a heyday with the damp soils. As key decomposers, termites facilitate the breakdown of dead plants, allowing nutrients to cycle, somewhat reducing the local threat of wildfires.
Freezing temperatures also benefit a variety of species. Those of us who yearly try to tease a goodly amount of fruit from our orchards know that these trees bear better if there are a number of freezing nights. This serves to stimulate flowering and hence fruit production. True, these frosty nights can and do kill some native species of plants. Witness the local die-off of Hopbush about four winters ago when the thermometers dipped into the nearly unthinkable realm of single digit temperatures! A fringe benefit of this apparent calamity was the demise of many nonnative grasses, such as Bermuda grass, Lehmann’s lovegrass, and natal grass. The cold knocked these $#@&!’s down a notch, much to my delight. Likely, local bark beetle populations were kept somewhat in check by the same Arctic blast, allowing trees such as Arizona cypress to survive their depredations.
All in all an el Nino winter will be a wild ride, both taking from and giving to, various flora and fauna. So dust off your rain gear, go buy a good pair of mittens, and change the wiper blades on your vehicle, hoping that your purchases have not been in vain.
Vincent Pinto and his wife, Claudia, run RAVENS-WAY WILD JOURNEYS, their Nature Adventure & Conservation organization devoted to protecting the unique biodiversity of the Sky Islands Region. For more information, visit ravensnatureschool.org